When discussing the most expensive skins in CS2, many people think of knives with rare patterns or items that remain limited in quantity on the market, such as the AWP Dragon Lore or M4A4 Howl. But recently the list of incredibly expensive ones was supplemented with another, truly unique one: we are talking about a unique variety of AK-47 Case Hardened with pattern index 661. It first appeared on one of the trading platforms in mid-January 2024, and its cost can reach $1 million.
Probability of Obtaining
AK-47 Case Hardened was added to the game back in 2013. The pattern index affects its coloring, which means there are a thousand possible options. It turns out that the probability of getting a specific type of skin is 1 in 21 million:
- According to information on skin drop probabilities, the chance of getting an AK-47 Case Hardened is 1.585%.
- With a 10% chance it may have a StatTrak counter.
- Since there are only a thousand pattern indexes, the probability of getting one of which is 0.1%.
- The possible float range from 0 to 1.00 gives a 3% chance of getting a skin in Factory New quality.
Taking into account all these probabilities, we get that the chance of getting a new AK-47 Case Hardened (#661) with a StatTrak counter and in ideal quality is 0.000004755%. It is not surprising that during the entire existence of the game such a skin had never dropped until 2024, given that there are not very many copies of the CS:GO Weapon Case on the market.
However, it is not known exactly how the owner of the rare skin received it. Perhaps this did not happen as a result of opening a case, but through a Trade-Up contract. However, even in this case the probability is low, and the exchange will require significant investments. By correctly selecting the initial skins, you can guarantee the presence of a StatTrak counter and a float value, but getting the desired pattern index is still a matter of chance.
Cost of AK-47 Case Hardened
Although many collectors have already voiced their estimates that this skin can cost up to one million dollars, the actual price will depend on the state of the market. Unique skins, which exist in a single copy, are similar in this sense to famous works of art: they cost exactly what collectors are willing to pay for them. The AK-47 Case Hardened (#661) is valued for its unique distribution of colored texture areas on the case, and the value of this example will increase due to the "Factory New" quality and the presence of a kill counter.
You can make some assumptions based on information about past transactions with similar skins. For example, a couple of years ago, AK-47 Case Hardened (#661) as “Minimal Wear” with four rare stickers sold for half a million. And the owner of the Karambit Case Hardened Blue Gem knife as “Factory New” once refused an offer to sell it for a million — that is, such a price order is in principle possible. Whether the owner of this new unique AK-47 will want to sell it — and for how much — we may find out in the near future.
